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AUNext time the U.S. strikes the Middle East, everyone rushes to buy oil and defense.
That’s not where the edge is.
Fertilizer quietly runs the world.
Nitrogen fertilizer feeds billions
And it’s made from ammonia and urea—much of it produced in Gulf countries
Here’s the problem:
About 1/3 of global fertilizer supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz
When that gets disrupted, supply gets trapped
And when supply gets trapped → prices move
That’s when U.S. producers win
They make nitrogen fertilizer domestically using natural gas
No chokepoint. No bottleneck. Just leverage
Since the Iran strikes:
• CF Industries +30%
• Mosaic +6%
• Nutrien +10%
If disruptions continue, this trend doesn’t just disappear
Most people react to headlines
The smart money positions before the second order effects hit
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