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THWASHINGTON — A deepening rift between the Trump administration’s economic optimism and federal fiscal reality took center stage this week, as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released projections painting a sobering picture of the U.S. economy.
In a report released Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the nonpartisan watchdog agency forecast that the U.S. budget deficit will widen to $1.853 trillion in fiscal year 2026. The data stands in stark contrast to the White House’s narrative of "exploding" growth, setting up a significant political clash as the administration pushes forward with its "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislative agenda.
The Numbers: A Widening Fiscal Gap
The CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook offers a challenging assessment of the nation's balance sheet. After a brief dip in fiscal year 2025—where the deficit settled at roughly $1.78 trillion—the gap is projected to expand again.
According to the report, the federal deficit will hit $1.853 trillion in 2026, equating to approximately 5.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This figure is historically high for an economy not currently in a recession or a major war. More alarmingly, the CBO predicts this is not a temporary spike; the deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to average 6.1% over the next decade, significantly outpacing the historical average.
Read more: https://thegeopolittoon.com/cartoons/trump-vs-the-data-cbo-projects-185-trillion-deficit-amid-growth-dispute
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