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CHThe outlook for oil remains highly volatile and elevated due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, now in its third week as of mid-March 2026. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted around 20% of global oil flows, triggering a sharp surge in prices—Brent crude has climbed over 40-50% this month, recently trading around $105-110 per barrel after hitting highs above that mark.
Analysts have revised 2026 forecasts upward significantly: Standard Chartered now sees an average of $85.50/bbl (up from $70), while others warn of potential spikes to $91+ in late 2026 or even $100+ if disruptions persist. Near-term risks include prolonged supply shut-ins, infrastructure damage, and broader regional escalation, fueling a substantial geopolitical risk premium.
However, some expect prices to ease later in the year toward $70-80 if the conflict de-escalates quickly or ends (e.g., within weeks), as underlying fundamentals point to eventual supply recovery and possible glut. Volatility will likely continue, with upside risks dominating while hostilities endure, impacting global inflation and energy costs.
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